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Nytimes election odds12/3/2023 ![]() ![]() “It is certainly pretty worrisome,” Lilliana Mason, an associate professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University who studies partisanship, told me. ![]() But partisanship, and Trump’s unique candidacy, may be contributing as well. As we drift further away from that date, the less its horrors register in the public consciousness. Trump’s support in the Republican presidential primary has only grown since his first indictment in New York, and his favorability ratings have remained pretty static since January 6.īut the general public has also shown signs of, if not rejection, at least apathy about that event: Public opinion over the last two years indicates an increasing desire among Americans to move on from January 6. ![]() The change is most clear among Republicans. What was once an event that united the public in horror has become just another contested item on our polarized national agenda. In the two and a half years since the insurrection at the US Capitol, public opinion on and political rhetoric about that day have followed a predictable path. Some evidence suggests those arguments are working. The Justice Department’s investigation into the January 6 attacks.The Georgia investigation into Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election.The New York Stormy Daniels hush money case.The Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.The investigations into Trump, explained: In the run-up to the most recent federal charges, the former president resorted to similar tactics: arguing to Republican voters that “they’re not indicting me, they’re indicting you,” and calling the probes “ Election Interference.” Trump allies like Greene have used that line of defense to muddy the waters around the last two Trump indictments - a move they have, predictably, been using again. Her statement came less than two weeks before the Republican Party’s unofficial leader was indicted Tuesday on four counts in a federal investigation into his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election - an investigation that Republicans have been working hard to discredit as a part of a politically motivated plot to punish President Joe Biden’s main political opponent. Marjorie Taylor Greene unintentionally summed up a core principle of liberal democracy: “When evidence and proof of a crime is presented, no prosecution should be denied no matter who the person is.” We’re still digging into the numbers, and will continue to do so even after the House is called, so stay tuned for more coverage of unresolved races and analyses of what we’ve learned in the weeks to come.A few weeks ago, while chasing unproven criminal connections between the president and his son, far-right Georgia Rep. And finally, while almost 200 election deniers were on the ballot last week, those who won tended to be incumbent members of Congress who had voted against certifying some of the 2020 election results, rather than newcomers who aligned themselves with Trump’s stolen election narrative. We saw large splits between Senate and gubernatorial candidates of the same party, including four states (so far!) that elected candidates of different parties to those two positions. First, abortion played a big role in races up and down the ballot, from ballot measures to state legislative races to gubernatorial elections. There will be much more analysis of this election to come - and you can explore our in-the-moment analysis by scrolling down below - but we’ve already noticed a couple things. With the Senate and governors races (mostly) settled, and only about a dozen House races still unprojected, we’ve shuttered this page and switched to our uncalled races live blog. Hey readers, thanks for following along with FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm elections live blog. ![]()
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